What The Bucs Need To Do To Win

When I started watching film in preparation for writing this post, I initially intended to try to approach it the same way I had been doing them for years with my previous employer. In years past, I would try to give the point of view of both teams and what they each likely would, and, in my opinion, should have done to win the game. Then I would end with my prediction about who would win and what the final score would be.

It took me awhile to decide on that approach, but it was what I had become accustomed to writing around this time every year. This time around, however, it wasn’t quite as easy to see things from both teams’ perspective.

Look, I played six out of my seven years in the NFL here in Tampa for the Buccaneers, and I made this area my home. At this point I have lived here longer than I’ve lived anywhere else in my lifetime. Just to be clear, I am not necessarily a “fan” of the Bucs, for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, the ownership’s financial support for Donald Trump, however, I do find it hard to not cheer for the players, having been in their same shoes, more or less, twenty odd years ago. And, hell, its a great story being the first NFL team to play in a Superbowl in their home stadium.

I think we can all admit, that’s pretty fucking dope.

Ok, so, yeah, I’m biased this year. But, you know what? Since I’m writing for myself at this point, I made the executive decision to go ahead and lean all the way into that bias.

Why?

Simply put, because I can.

It’s my column and I’ll write it they way I damn well please. So what I’ve settled on is telling about all the important things I believe the Bucs will do on Sunday, and, where appropriate, I will make recommendations of things I think they should do to win the game, that they haven’t necessarily shown yet. In the process you should be able to discern some of the things you can expect from the Kansas City Chiefs as well as long as you pay attention. But, make no mistake about it, the focus of this piece is going to be on the Buccaneers. If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

Tampa Offense

I went back and watched the week 12 Bucs/Chiefs match up a few times over the last week, and I was just struck over and over again by how aggressive the Chiefs’ defensive game plan was. They got off the bus blitzing and didn’t stop all day. Considering the kind of firepower the Bucs have at receiver and tight end, I don’t really recall many teams sending pressure after Brady like that this season. Mind you, it really could’ve gotten ugly fast had the Bucs been able to block up those pressures, but, instead, back then they looked overmatched and underprepared. There were several instances where Brady had to speed up his decision making early on in the game where he was forced to throw short of the sticks rather than waiting for other, more promising routes to develop. That continued into the second half including on a play in the third quarter where the Chiefs sent pressure and Brady ended up throwing an interception. He was trying to push the ball down the field on a go route to Scotty Miller, but instead the ball was a bit underthrown and the Chiefs made him pay. At the time the Bucs were already down big, but they had already made it to the Chiefs’ 36 yard line and they looked primed to score at least a field goal on that drive. When you remember that Tampa ultimately only lost by three points it shows just how impactful the Chiefs blitzing was throughout that game.

One thing that surprised me a little is how often KC played some form of single high safety even when they weren’t sending pressure. To their credit, their safeties were constantly moving around before the snap making it hard to tell what coverage they would end up in, but still, more often than not, they did not have two safeties deep after the ball was snapped in that first match up. In laymen’s terms, the outside receivers should have had quite a few one on one opportunities deep in that situation.

The Buccaneers, however, really didn’t really make Kansas City pay for such an aggressive game plan until later in the game. There was an opportunity early for Mike Evans to catch a deep ball one on one up the side line, but it went off his fingertips. Not something I’m used to seeing from him quite honestly. In general, the Bucs didn’t really take a lot of shots against those single high looks, however. Instead they seemed to favor crossing routes which took a little too long to develop.

In fairness, one thing I give the Chiefs secondary credit for is being really good at playing outside fade routes. They do a really good job of pressing the receiver to the sideline and staying in their hip pocket so the receiver can’t come back for a back shoulder fade. That forces the quarterback to have to lead the receiver, and those tend to be harder throws. Even then, the Chiefs corners are really good at playing the ball through the receivers hands once the ball is in the air.

So, when it comes to the passing game, the biggest emphasis this week should be on protection. I see no reason why the Chiefs wouldn’t be just as aggressive sending pressures after Brady in the Super Bowl just like they did in week 12, but the flip side of that is if the Bucs can actually get a few of those blitzes blocked up this time around, they should have plenty of opportunities for big plays down field.

But, speaking of down field, one adjustment I think the Bucs should make in this game is instead of throwing a bunch of outside fades when pressure is coming, they should throw more deep corner routes to the slot receivers and and tight ends. To be clear, Evans, Chris Godwin, and just about all the other Bucs wide receiver will see time in the slot from time to time, so it could be any of them getting the ball, but I think that area of the field will be more vulnerable considering how the Chiefs play coverage.

I would think Tampa will run a bunch of deep crossing routes with the slot receivers and tight ends as well, since they had some success with that in the first game. Those deep corner routes and deep “over” crossing routes should be easier and more high percentage throws than the outside fades as well, and they won’t necessarily take more time to develop, either.

I do believe you still have to test the Chiefs deep on the outside as well, but I think double moves like the “wheel” route Evans scored on late in that week 12 match up would be the way to accomplish that. However, again, the Bucs had better have the protection issues solved if they plan on trying slower developing plays like that.

I’m a little more on the fence about this one, but I also think the Bucs should at least try some quick slants, especially to Evans, as a counter to the pressure looks at times. Evans is a big, physical wide receiver with catchers’ mitts for hands. Throw him a few slants when the corner doesn’t have any help inside and at the least Evans should force a few illegal contact or holding penalties out of it. I can envision him doing much more damage if he actually catches the ball in position to run, however. Mind you, pretty much all of the Bucs receivers have good run-after-catch ability so whether its Evans, or Godwin, etc, they may be able to make some major hay out of those quick slants as well. If Antonio Brown is healthy and active, he should definitely see a few of those slants as well.

One other little thing I also think might help the Bucs this week, also, is incorporating dummy motion where the receiver goes across the formation and back just to see if the corner follows them, to force the Chiefs to show their hand whether they are playing man or zone. I know sometimes they won’t have time to do it because of the play clock, but the more motion, or running back shifts, where they start out wide then coming back to line up in the backfield, they can do, the more Brady should be able to tell what coverage he is facing. And like GI Joe says, knowing is half the battle!

A well run screen pass or two can also be Kryptonite for blitz happy defenses, so I would expect the Bucs try a few throughout the course of the game. If Fournette can just catch the ball he might see a big gain on one, too.

I will say that I thought the Bucs’ offensive line, aside from one really good rush from KC edge rusher Frank Clark, held up well against the Chiefs’ four man rush so if the Chiefs don’t send pressure, I think Brady should have enough time most of the night to scan the field and let things develop. I am a little worried about Chris Jones rushing inside, however. Especially when he goes against right guard Aaron Stinnie. One thing that everyone knows bothers Brady (and most quarterbacks) is pressure right up the middle. The Bucs have to find a way to get Jones blocked or it is going to be a long day for everybody.

As for the running game, the Buccaneers only ran the ball with their running backs 12 times in week 12, and I think that was a huge mistake, even with the early deficit. The Bucs offense just isn’t as efficient when they don’t run the ball well, and throwing the ball so much against all those blitzes is bad for Brady’s health.

Running the ball can also create an opportunity to gash a defense that likes to blitz a lot. Since the playoffs started, Tampa’s running backs have run the ball 24, 30 and 22 times in successive weeks, and they didn’t even have Ronald Jones for the Wild Card round. Neither Leonard Fournette, nor Jones are exactly “game breakers,” but they are steady and they can at least get drives started off with three or four yards a pop. They are also a pretty good contrast in running styles, even though they are both relatively “big” backs. Fournette is going to try to be patient and make people miss (for better, or worse), while Jones is more of a downhill, run through your tackle guy, although he too can make people miss. I would still have concerns about ball security with both of them, but I think it will be imperative for the Bucs running backs to get at least 20 runs combined in this game, if the Buccaneers have any chance of winning.

One wrinkle I think the Bucs should consider in the running game is running more split belly, where a tight end or big wide receiver cuts off the end man of the line of scrimmage on the back side of a belly run. I think the Chiefs are going to be in pass rush mode trying to get to Brady, especially knowing they don’t have to worry about any kind of bootlegs or quarterback runs, and split bellys can catch them slipping, while also allowing both Fournette and Jones to get downhill and into the secondary in a hurry.

Tampa Defense

Before I get into the actual game plan let me say this: for all of the praise people heap on Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and, believe me, if anything we are probably still underselling how cold this kid is, one under-the-radar skills he has is drawing defensive linemen off sides.

He is a master at it.

He got the Bucs’ defensive line several times in week 12, but then again he gets just about everybody at least once. Oh and he at least tries to get the defense to jump at least once in both halves. You can bet your ass he will try to get the Bucs to jump again early and often in this Super Bowl, especially knowing he has two backup tackles protecting him.

Now if I know that, Tampa should definitely know that.

Its up to the Buccaneers to make this a point of emphasis this week. That Chiefs offense is too damn good to just give them five yards here and there. I’ll know early how wired in the defense is if they jump or not, because its definitely coming. And if it works once, why not keep trying it, right?

Best way to avoid all that is to pass the test the first time with flying colors. Watch the damn ball, and don’t jump!

As for the actual game plan, back in week 12 KC receiver Tyreek Hill hit the Bucs defense for 13 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Quite a few of those catches were on Tampa’s top corner back Carlton Davis which, on the surface level at least, might seem to be very concerning for Tampa’s defense. The truth is after re-watching the tape, however, while Davis certainly had a disappointing game against Hill, it is also true that in some instances he wasn’t put in a favorable position. On some other plays where Hill made the catch over him, Davis was actually in pretty good position, but just didn’t make the play. I also have to point out, however, that at least once it appeared Davis was supposed to have a deep third, but inexplicably bit on a Hill hesitation instead of staying back deep. Needless to say, after getting embarrassed on that play I don’t think anyone will have to remind Davis not to do that again this week.

So, for me at least, I’m not that concerned about Davis this week even after his week 12 performance. That dude may not be at a Pro Bowl level yet, but Davis is one of the better young corners in the league and he ain’t scared. Bucs fans just have to hope he is put in better positions this week, and he is a little more on the details, but I don’t forsee him having another game to remember against Hill on Sunday.

One way Tampa Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles could help Davis out is by keeping a safety back a little more to help out when Hill goes deep. And even when he isn’t going to get help, maybe at least make it look like he is before the snap. Now, I am not sure you can fool Mahomes by rolling coverages after the snap or not, but I do know I would at least try to do that as much as possible on Sunday. The plain and simple truth is if Davis is going to shadow Hill, then he is going to need help over the top quite a bit in this game. Davis is fast, but Hill is just on another level with that peeewwwwnnn. Keep in mind, the safety can’t be late getting over there either or Mahomes will just keep dropping the ball right between the corner and safety like he did several times in week 12.

The truth is, with the way the Bucs can play the run so well with just their front six or seven, especially now that Vita Vea has returned, I don’t see why the Bucs wouldn’t play more zone in the Superbowl, anyway. Force Mahomes and that offense to drive the ball to score, rather than giving them opportunities for big plays. If I were the Bucs I would be begging the Chiefs to run the ball. Please put it in somebody’s hands other than Mahomes. I’m sorry but if Darrel Williams beats you then so be it. You can live with that.

That doesn’t mean Todd Bowles has to call his defense scared on Sunday, however, Actually, where I think he should be aggressive is with the pass rush. The thing everyone has to understand about playing Mahomes is there is no down and distance, nor damn near any situation in a game, where you can relax and go with a three man rush. If you give him enough time he will beat your ass on 3rd and forever. So, first of all, throw all of your three man rush packages in the fucking trash. Then douse in gasoline and set that shit on fire.

Ok so you are rushing *at least* four guys on every passing play. Great. Now, on 3rd down in particular, you also have to mix in some five man pressures. Bill Belichick showed the blueprint two years ago when the Patriots faced the Chiefs in the playoffs. Belichick kept sending five man pressures where the four down linemen would run pass rush games, and one line backer or secondary player would join the rush either at the snap or a half a beat after it. The pass rush games were important because they pushed the pocked back into Mahomes’ lap, and then he would try to escape to his left or right, and that blitzing linebacker or secondary player would be right there to force his hand. At the time that game was the worst I had ever seen a defense force Mahomes to play. And that’s exactly why I recommended the San Francicso 49ers attempt to duplicate the effort in the Superbowl last year.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane.

With a little less than 10 minutes left in the second quarter the 49ers sent a five man rush after Mahomes on 3rd and 7 and forced and incompletion short of the sticks to the running back. With a little over six minutes left in the third quarter the 49ers sent five rushers after Mahomes on 2nd and 5 and sac ked him and caused him to fumble. He recovered the fumble but threw an interception on the very next play trying to convert on 3rd and 12.

Don’t get me wrong, Mahomes will probably make some plays against five man rush too. He’s just that good. But if you only rush four, even four as good as the Bucs pass rushers in Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, and Vea, Mahomes is just too damn good at moving around in and out of the pocket to buy just enough time to unload that cannon. Oh and if he successfully breaks containment that is usually your ass Mr Postman!

But pressure busts more than just pipes.

I tell you what, the Chiefs’ performance on offense against the Falcons at the end of the season was not just an aberration or KC playing down to their combination. Atlanta’s pass rush was getting after it almost the whole first half which is why the offense was held scoreless until they scored a touchdown on a two minute drive right before halftime. On two different thrrd downs in the first quarter the Falcons sent five rushers and got two incompletions after it. Then the Chiefs tried a trick play throw back to Mahomes from Sammy Watkins and the Falcons picked it off.

Oh, that’s another thing. Trick plays like end arounds, and throw backs are a standard part of the Chiefs’ offense. I’m sure you will see all kinds of misdirection from them Sunday, especially with a fast flow defense like the Bucs. I wouldn’t be surprised if they called one on the first drive. They will call them anywhere on the field though, including in the redzone so Tampa will have ot be on high alert at all times for that stuff.

But, back to the Falcons. Now why do you think the Chiefs were suddenly able to move the ball? Oh, I’ll tell you why. It’s because the Falcons got cute. For no friggin reason they started trying three man rush and you already know what happened next. Lesson of the story? Don’t get cute against the Chiefs. Ever!

As for the five man rushes, I think Bucs linebacker Devin White would be perfect as that extra rusher. He already had nine sacks this season so he obviously has a knack for it, and physically he is so damn fast when he decides to take off that if Mahomes tries to break containment White could be on him before he even sees him coming. Imagine dodging Suh and JPP only to get blasted by White out of nowhere.

I don’t know the intricacies of the Bucs’ coverages, but you can generally still play zone behind a five man rush, too which means even if you send White on third down, that doesn’t mean you have to leave Davis out on an island with Hill again.

Look, I don’t know if there is such a think as Kryptonite for Mahomes, but five man rush looks like the closest thing to it from my perspective. And, quite honestly, sometimes it seems like when Mahomes sees five rushers coming he speeds up his process, whether he has to or not. I will say the 49ers came damn close to beating the Chiefs and forcing Mahomes into one of the worst games of his career in last year’s Superbowl by rushing four or five most of the game. You could even make the case that the defense had a winning effort in that game. But in the end it wasn’t enough because Mahomes eventually woke up and the 49ers offense took their foot off the gas. Again, moral to the story, don’t!

One last thing, the Chiefs are probably going to do half rolls on Sunday to help Mahomes get away from the Bucs’ pass rush. They do them against everybody, but having both starting tackles might make it something they turn to even more this week. Edge rushers have to look at the running back if he is offset to their side. Any time that running back is offset wide, like almost as wide as the tackle, they have to alert that half roll or the next thing they know they will be getting cut at the knees and Mahomes will be delivering a ball down field for a another first down.

If you want to know about the kind of offensive plays the Chiefs will run on Sunday I recommend clicking the link to last year’s Super Bowl preview because there should be a lot of overlap with that game plan.

One more thing. Back in week 12 the Chiefs used two tight end personnel to throw the ball. But the reason they did it was to get the Bucs into a true 3–4 personnel with William Gholston in up front along with Suh and Vea and the edge rushers outside. Then Kansas City would find a way to target whichever edge rusher dropped into coverage, either with their formation or with motion. I don’t know if it was a coincidence, or intentional, but they also always seemed to do this in week 12 when the Bucs had back up edge rushers in. My advice would to the Bucs would be if they are going to use that personnel again on Sunday, and I think they should, they should make sure the call tells allows all five guys up front to rush the passer in the event they drop back to throw.

Special Teams

My only note on special teams is the Bucs should try to avoid kicking the ball to any Chiefs return man. Look I know Mecole Hardman fumbled a punt in the AFC Championship game, but that dude is faaast. You have enough to deal with when it comes to the Chiefs offense, you don’t need anymore problems from punting to a damn gazelle.

Verdict

I want to pick the Buccaneers to win, but I’ve picked them to lose the last two games and they made me eat my words. So I’m going to go ahead and pick them to lose again (wink wink) and I think the score will be 30–24…one way or another.